It is maybe... No, it is too early to talk about the end of a hype when the hype has not really started yet. In this way this contribution is not really client focused. Never row against the flow...But it can do no harm either. Not only some stock exchange experience will teach us that expectations are sometimes inflated. For some trends it could take years before they grow into a real hype. But then, when the expectations are no longer met you should be prepared... For those who are in the Article production business. The threat comes from on aspect which is easily underestimated. A Hype Cycle is a graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies. Since 1995, Gartner has used Hype Cycles to characterize the over-enthusiasm or "hype" and subsequent disappointment that typically happens with the introduction of new technologies. (http://www.gartner.com/pages/story.php.id.8795.s.8.jsp) Such a cycle consists of five phases; - 1. "Technology Trigger"
- 2. "Peak of Inflated Expectations"
- 3. "Trough of Disillusionment"
- 4. "Slope of Enlightenment"
- 5. "Plateau of Productivity"
An important lesson of Gartner is that all that is new is fancy and gets (press) support. Then, when the enthusiasm is over, the disappointments follows and support (commitment) falls back. And this commitment is needed for projects to succeed. The project in this case could be: article production and syndication. If you think that the hype cycle is only for introduction of new technology, you could use the wisdom of the stock-exchange; there too the stock prices are often inflated because of unreal expectations. Disappointment will also follow. Now what could lead to such disappointment? Quality. What is very likely to happen is that the quality of the article production gets hurt by the demands of quantity. We want more and we do no longer bother about the quality. Quality is in danger when quantity gets all the freedom. Interesting in this context is the economic law of Gresham: bad money drives out good money The universal reach of this law is debated. Yet for those who think this future threat is relevant might as well act with further investigation on the topic. Be aware... 2006 Hans Bool |
